The Estes Valley Fire Protection District moved from Stage 2 to Stage 1 fire restrictions Friday as recent rain, cooler temperatures, and improving fuel conditions lowered the risk of human-caused wildfire.
The change does not mean all fire danger has passed. Fire Chief Kevin Nunn said fire conditions can be fluid and restriction levels can move up or down as weather, moisture, and fuel conditions change.
Heat, cold, precipitation, humidity, and wind all play a role, but the district does not make its decision based on any single factor or short-term change.
“It’s really a matrix,” Nunn said.
The matrix evaluates five areas: the Energy Release Component, 1,000-hour fuel moisture, live fuel moisture, regional preparedness levels, and weather and fire-danger trends for the next seven to 14 days.
Under the decision model, fire restrictions are considered when at least three criteria reach designated thresholds. A Stage 2 fire ban generally requires at least four criteria to be met.
The district also consults its firefighters and coordinates with the Town of Estes Park, Larimer County, Rocky Mountain National Park, and the Arapaho and Roosevelt National Forests. However, the fire chief has the authority to place the EVFPD under restrictions or remove them.
Nunn said the move to Stage 1 was based on fire conditions, not political or economic pressure from elected officials, businesses, or other community interests.
“This was truly on our radar,” he said. “We were evaluating this.”
To evaluate the conditions, Nunn relies on metrics from several data collection sources, including the Rocky Mountain Area Coordination Center, a predictive service that collects, analyzes, produces, and disseminates wildland fire-specific information for Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Wyoming; the National Interagency Coordination Center; and the Fire Environment Mapping System.
Measuring how intensely a fire could burn
The Energy Release Component, or ERC, estimates the potential energy a fire could release based on the dryness and volatility of available fuels.
The index runs from zero to 100. Nunn said readings below 60 generally do not trigger concern. Readings from about 64 to 73 indicate restrictions should be considered, while readings above 73 point to highly volatile fuels and a greater need for restrictions.
The number can change relatively quickly during periods of dry, hot, and windy weather. Recent cooler and wetter conditions have pushed the local ERC below the threshold that contributed to the Stage 2 restrictions.
Rain must reach larger fuels
The second measurement examines 1,000-hour fuels, such as large dead logs on the forest floor.
The name 1,000-hour fuels describes how long it would take a fully saturated piece of dead wood, 3 inches to 8 inches in diameter, to dry under standard conditions. Because these fuels absorb and lose moisture slowly, a brief rainstorm may wet the surface without substantially changing the moisture deep inside the wood.
A short, heavy shower can make the landscape appear wetter while leaving large fuels dangerously dry. Sustained rain over several days has a greater effect.
Nunn said 1,000-hour fuel moisture below about 10% is a serious concern because the wood is approaching kiln-dried conditions. Moisture levels between 10% and 12% also fall within the district’s area of concern.
In July, local readings were below 11%. Recent rainfall raised the measurement to about 14%, moving it above the matrix’s critical threshold.
“That’s a lot of rain that we have received to change those 1,000-hour fuels,” Nunn said.
Living trees provide another measure
Live fuel moisture measures the amount of water in living vegetation, including trees and shrubs.
Unlike weather-station readings, live fuel moisture may require field samples. Crews cut vegetation of a prescribed size and test the material to determine its moisture content. Readings above 100% generally indicate healthier moisture levels and a lower likelihood that living vegetation will ignite and carry fire rapidly.
Green grass or damp soil alone does not establish that the larger landscape is safe. Fire officials look at moisture throughout the fuel system, from grasses and shrubs to living trees and large dead wood.
Firefighting resources factor into restrictions
The district also considers the Rocky Mountain Area preparedness level, which reflects wildfire activity and the availability of firefighters, engines, aircraft, and other resources across the region.
Preparedness levels range from 1 to 5. Level 1 indicates relatively little fire activity and broad resource availability. Level 5 means firefighting resources are heavily committed, and additional large fires could strain the system.
When Nunn reviewed the matrix, the Rocky Mountain Area was at Preparedness Level 2. That indicated sufficient regional resources were available, even though the national preparedness level was higher because of fires elsewhere in the country.
Local conditions can therefore be affected by distant fires. If Colorado crews and equipment are sent to major incidents in neighboring states, fewer resources may be available to respond to a new fire in the Estes Valley.
Forecasts look beyond today’s weather
The fifth factor examines expected conditions during the next seven to 14 days.
Fire officials review National Weather Service forecasts and predictive-services data for temperature, precipitation, humidity, wind, lightning, and expected fire danger. A few cool or rainy days may not justify easing restrictions if hot, dry, and windy weather is expected to return.
Conversely, a sustained pattern of cooler and wetter weather can support lowering restrictions when fuel-moisture readings and other measures are also improving.
Nunn said the current conditions are moving toward cooler and wetter conditions, reducing concern under that portion of the matrix, but he said he has fought fires on top of snow and knows that cold temps and wet conditions do not eliminate the risk of fire.
The restrictions focus primarily on reducing human-caused fires. They cannot eliminate the danger of lightning, which may ignite vegetation immediately or smolder underground before surfacing later.
Whether the district is under Stage 1 or Stage 2 “does not matter” to a lightning strike, Nunn said. The restrictions are designed to control human activities that can produce flames, embers, or sparks.
What the three stages mean
Stage 0 — No additional restrictions: Open burning is allowed with required permits. Recreational fires are permitted if they comply with year-round safety rules, including limits on fuel-pile size, distance from structures, constant attendance, and having a way to extinguish the fire. Charcoal, wood, pellet, and gas grills are allowed, subject to property-specific rules.
Stage 1 — Fire restrictions: Recreational wood fires are permitted only in permanent enclosures or devices designed to contain fire. Charcoal and pellet grills and smokers are generally allowed, although solid-fuel burning is prohibited at short-term rentals. Gas grills and gas recreational fire devices are allowed. Slash burning, burning yard waste, and recreational fires outside approved enclosures are prohibited.
Stage 2 — Fire ban: Wood-burning recreational fires, charcoal grills, pellet grills, and pellet smokers are prohibited. Outdoor smoking is prohibited. Gas grills and gas fire pits or appliances equipped with an immediate shut-off valve are generally allowed.
Other considerations
Fireworks require permits for professional displays and remain subject to state and local laws. Many types of fireworks, including firecrackers, bottle rockets, Roman candles, and mortars, are illegal in Colorado outside permitted professional displays.
Rocky Mountain National Park maintains year-round Stage 1 fire restrictions and may impose more restrictive rules when fire danger increases. They are currently in Stage 2. Other jurisdictions surrounding Estes Park, including Larimer County, may also remain at a different restriction level. People should check the rules for the specific land they plan to visit; when two jurisdictions apply, the more restrictive rules govern.
The change to Stage 1 could allow activities that were not permitted under Stage 2, but no decision has been made about the annual Estes Park High School homecoming bonfire. Fire district prevention staff members are working with the school as officials evaluate fire conditions and logistical issues, including the location.
Town and fire officials also have not decided whether or when Estes Park’s canceled Fourth of July fireworks display may be rescheduled.
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