When the Town of Estes Park announced that this year’s Fourth of July fireworks display would be postponed because of drought conditions and heightened wildfire danger, many residents wondered what, exactly, “drought conditions” means and how it is measured.
According to Meredith Muth, Regional Drought Information Coordinator for the National Integrated Drought Information System’s Southeast Drought Early Warning System, there are several data-driven ways that drought is measured.
The most widely recognized is the U.S. Drought Monitor, which is also featured on the Colorado Water Conservation Board’s drought website.
“You can also visit the U.S. Drought Portal Colorado State Page, which allows you to generate images and statistics for Estes or Larimer County. These images are easy to download, and provide language on what each drought stage means,” said Muth, who works in Boulder and lives in Lyons and was just in Estes last week fishing in the Big Thompson, so she knows the conditions as both a scientist and as a local.
On June 4, 2026, Gov. Jared Polis declared a statewide drought emergency as record-low snowpack and prolonged warm temperatures intensified drought conditions across Colorado. The declaration followed recommendations from the Colorado Drought Task Force and the Water Conditions Monitoring Committee after months of tracking declining water supplies and worsening drought conditions statewide.
What is drought?
Contrary to what many people assume, drought is not simply the result of going a few weeks without rain. Instead, it is a complex environmental condition measured by scientists using a wide range of weather, water, and ecological data collected over time.
Drought is the absence of precipitation, rather than the presence of an event like a hurricane, tornado, or fire. People describe it as a ‘creeping phenomenon’ because it slowly impacts many sectors of the economy and can last from just a few weeks or months to multiple years.
Because drought develops gradually, identifying exactly when it begins—or when it ends—is not always straightforward.
Drought is difficult to define, and it’s also difficult to monitor, and its effects vary from region to region. Due to climatic differences, what might be considered a drought in one part of the country may not be a drought somewhere else.
How is drought measured?
There is no single instrument or measurement that determines whether an area is in drought.
“The most recognized one is the U.S. Drought Monitor, which is also highlighted on the Colorado Water Conservation Board drought website,” Muth said.
The U.S. Drought Monitor combines information from precipitation totals, mountain snowpack, soil moisture, streamflow, reservoir levels, groundwater conditions, and satellite observations of vegetation health to classify drought conditions across the country.
The weekly map categorizes conditions into five levels:
- D0 – Abnormally Dry: Conditions are becoming drier than normal.
- D1 – Moderate Drought: Some water shortages begin to emerge, and wildfire danger increases.
- D2 – Severe Drought: Water shortages become more widespread, vegetation becomes increasingly stressed, and wildfire risk rises significantly.
- D3 – Extreme Drought: Major agricultural losses and significant water shortages occur.
- D4 – Exceptional Drought: The highest level of drought, characterized by widespread water emergencies and extreme wildfire danger.
Why drought matters in Colorado
Colorado’s climate makes drought especially important because much of the state’s annual water supply originates as mountain snow.
Across the Intermountain West—including Colorado, Utah, Wyoming, Arizona, and New Mexico—winter snowpack serves as a natural reservoir that gradually melts through the spring and summer, supplying water for cities, agriculture, recreation, and ecosystems.
The region also includes deserts, forests, alpine peaks, fertile valleys, and rapidly growing communities, meaning drought can affect each area differently.
Drought onset may occur quickly and last a season, or begin gradually and last decades. The Rocky Mountain regions rely on winter snowpack to sustain cities, towns, agriculture, and recreation.
Summer rainfall also plays an important role. In the Southwest, seasonal monsoon storms provide critical moisture for vegetation, livestock, and water supplies during the hottest months of the year.
Compounding those challenges is the region’s dependence on the Colorado River, one of the most heavily allocated river systems in North America, which supplies water to millions of people across the West.
The National Integrated Drought Information System’s Intermountain West Drought Early Warning System works with federal, state, tribal, and local partners to improve drought monitoring, increase communication among water managers and scientists, and help communities prepare for both current and future drought conditions.
Drought and wildfire are closely connected
Although drought and wildfire danger are related, they are not identical.
Fire managers also consider current weather conditions, including temperature, humidity, wind, and the moisture content of grasses, shrubs, and trees—known as fuel moisture—as well as the availability of firefighting resources.
Even areas experiencing only moderate drought can face extreme wildfire danger after prolonged periods of hot, dry, and windy weather.
Those factors influenced the Town of Estes Park’s decision, made in consultation with the Estes Valley Fire Protection District, to postpone this year’s Independence Day fireworks display over Lake Estes.
Officials said the decision reflected increasingly dry vegetation, elevated wildfire risk, and the growing demand for firefighting personnel and equipment as crews are deployed to active wildfires elsewhere in Colorado.
For residents, the postponement serves as a reminder that drought is not defined by whether it rained yesterday or last week. Rather, it reflects the cumulative effects of weeks, months, and sometimes years of below-normal precipitation, declining water supplies, and drying landscapes that together increase the risk of wildfire and other impacts across the region.
And while the professional fireworks show over Lake Estes has been postponed, residents are cautioned against staging their own private fireworks show. The area of the Estes Valley Fire Protection District is currently under Stage 2 Fire Restrictions.
Explanation of fire stages and restrictions
Stage I: The first stage is implemented when fire danger and preparedness levels are rising, and the risks of allowing all activities in the forest begin to outweigh the benefits. Stage I places relatively limited restrictions on activities most likely to spark a wildfire, primarily smoking and campfires.
Stage II: If conditions worsen, officials may implement Stage II restrictions. This level expands on Stage I by limiting additional activities that carry a higher risk of igniting a wildfire, including some work conducted under permits or contracts. Because these restrictions can affect visitors, businesses, contractors, and permit holders, officials weigh wildfire risks against the potential economic and social impacts before moving to Stage II.
Stage III – Closure: The final stage is reserved for periods of extreme wildfire danger when Stage I and Stage II restrictions are no longer sufficient to reduce the risk of human-caused fires. At this point, officials may close the forest to public access because the public safety and wildfire prevention benefits outweigh the significant social, economic, and political impacts of a closure.
Interview with Smokey the Bear
In a brief phone interview Saturday morning with the Estes Valley Voice, 81-year-old Smokey Bear had a clear Fourth of July message for residents and visitors alike. “No bottle rockets, aerial cakes, sparklers, cone fountains, or ground spinners. Nada. Nothing. Zip. Zilch. Zero. Nix. Nil. Not one.”
While Smokey said he understands the disappointment of missing the traditional fireworks over Lake Estes during America’s 250th birthday celebration and Colorado’s 150th anniversary, Smokey said firefighters already have enough on their plates battling wildfires across the region.
“They don’t need any more fires started by someone putting on a backyard fireworks show,” he said.
Before hanging up and heading out to help firefighters battling the Aspen Acres fire, which is now 85,000 acres in Pueblo and Custer Counties, the legendary guardian of America’s forests didn’t miss a beat. In that familiar voice that generations have come to recognize, Smokey offered one final reminder: “Be safe. Remember, you can help prevent wildfires.”