Bloomberg recently released its periodic survey of 86 economists, and the consensus has improved since the prior survey. Some highlights include:
- The chance of a recession decreased to 40% from 45%.
- Q2 GDP annualized forecast increased to 1.3% from .8%, and Q3 annualized GDP forecast increased to .8% from .6%.
- The 2025 inflation forecast (CPI) fell to 3% from 3.2%.
Bank of Estes Park forecasts a better summer for Estes Park retailers and lodges than 2024, but 2024 was significantly down due to “the cone zone” and the subsequent Alexander Mountain fire.
Even though the question of presidential authority over tariffs is currently being questioned, it’s too late to avoid a significant impact on our local retailers. The prospect of tariffs caused many local retailers to order significantly more inventory than usual, and to take other actions to prepare for potentially pinched margins and/or lower than anticipated revenues.
Lodges are also watching bookings very closely – this may be one of those years where visitors are coming from closer, and staying for shorter periods of time due to low consumer confidence. But that’s okay – Estes Park is used to these swings in the mix of who comes to visit us (from close versus from far), in how long they stay, and in what they choose to buy (how much, and big ticket items versus small ticket items, etc.).
Because last year was such a difficult year – much worse than the pandemic, since there was no government support – for our local businesses due to the “cone zone” and the subsequent Alexander Mountain fire, Bank of Estes Park did a multitude of things to ensure the stability of the community, including donating more than $60K into the local non-profit community since the business community would not be able to do as much as usual, among many other things.
But one initiative the bank ran was a “shop local” campaign to help support our local businesses, and to encourage our locals to potentially bring family and friends to visit Estes Park instead of traveling elsewhere. And this year will require something similar – when possible, we should all support our local businesses first.
Bank of Estes Park is proud to join the Retail Rally initiative formed by local retailers, the Chamber, and Visit Estes Park. And we hope you will also support the effort – here’s how.
Pick up a Retail Rally punch card at any participating shop in Estes Park, and when you spend at least $20 in that store, they will punch your card. After 15 punches, you can choose which participating store to leave your card at – it becomes an entry for a gift card to the store where you leave it.
But that’s not all. You will also be entered into a drawing to win a first prize of $1,000, sponsored by Visit Estes Park, or a second prize of $500, sponsored by Bank of Estes Park. We believe in this initiative so much, that for any participating store that banks with the only local bank in town, we will also fund their $50 gift card prize drawing as well.
You can find out which stores are participating by going to The Mad Moose and looking for the Retail Rally listing, or you can watch for Retail Rally posters in local shop windows.
But even if they are not participating in the Retail Rally, please shop, eat, and play locally whenever possible. Bring your friends and relatives to Estes Park if possible, instead of traveling elsewhere. And, of course, your local bank always appreciates your local support as well – it’s the only reason we are able to do the unrivaled things we do for the community in this mountain paradise we call home.
The thing that makes us “mountain strong” is neither the mountains nor our individual strength – it is the fact that together we have experienced floods, fires, pandemics, good times and bad, and we always come together to support each other, help each other, and lift each other out of whatever problem may arise.
Let’s focus on local. It really matters this year.