Estes Park’s population decreased slightly from 5,900 in April 2020 to an estimated 5,824 by July 2023, according to the latest data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
This 1.3% decline contrasts with overall growth in Colorado, which saw its population increase by approximately 36,571 people, or 0.6%, during the same period, reaching 5,877,610 in July 2023. This figure differs slightly from a report released last month by the Colorado Department of Local Affairs State Demography Office which counts the state’s population at 5,876,300.
This trend marks a reversal for Estes Park, which sits at about the 109th rank among the state’s cities and towns in terms of population and which had previously experienced steady growth as a popular mountain town known for its tourism and scenic landscapes.
Demographers and local officials attribute the population decline to a combination of economic pressures, housing challenges, and demographic shifts.
“Age compositions vary across regions in the state, with some areas seeing declines in the school-age population and others growth,” said Kate Watkins, Colorado’s state demographer, and a Department of Local Affairs staff member.
“In Larimer County as a whole, the school-age population has declined slightly in recent years and is projected to remain stable over the next decade. However, there is variation within the county.”
The high cost of living is a significant factor driving residents away. An estimate provided by Sperling’s Best Places, an online platform that aggregates data from numerous sources including a variety of federal agencies and realtor organizations, indicates that living in the town costs at least 15% more than in the average American city or town.
Typical annualized data such as family or personal income and the town’s rate of economic growth do not completely describe the local circumstances that may drive population changes in the region.
Estes Park’s dependence on tourism creates seasonal employment fluctuations, which causes some residents to experience economic instability. And housing affordability remains a critical issue, with limited options for workforce housing.
According to the Estes Park Housing Authority, the local housing market remains tight, with home prices out of reach for many who work in the area. “The Estes Valley requires an additional 1,220 dwellings to meet existing demand, and an additional 1,500 dwellings by 2030 due to the retiring workforce and anticipated job growth,” EPHA said in a 2023 Strategic Plan.
“The median home sale rose 50% from March 2020 to September 2022, from $392,000 to $585,000, respectively. Affordability has also declined in the rental market, as rent hikes outpaced income growth,” the organization explained in its 2024 Annual Housing Supply Plan.
The population decline in Estes Park also reflects broader migration trends affecting Colorado. During the first three years of this decade, Colorado gained an average of 6,645 people annually through net domestic migration, which is only 16% of the annual net domestic migration observed during the 2010s.
“In 2022 and 2023, net international migration overshot net domestic migration to Colorado for the first time in over a decade, as domestic migration dropped to a fraction of its mid-2010s levels,” according to the Common Sense Institute, a Greenwood Village-based research institution.
In 2022, more people left Colorado for other states than arrived, marking the first net outflow since 2005.
“In 2022, Colorado saw an outflow of 239,200 people, overshooting the 2010-2019 average yearly outflow of 177,475,” CSI said on its website.
Analysts point to rising housing costs, inflation, and changing remote work dynamics as contributing factors. Nevertheless, younger people are more likely to move to Colorado than older individuals, while the inverse situation applies to moving out of state.
While Estes Park’s population declined, some neighboring communities saw modest growth.
U.S. Census data shows that Greeley experienced a 3.1% population increase between July 2022 and July 2023, reaching 112,609 residents. Castle Rock and Thornton also saw notable population growth, reflecting a trend toward suburban expansion.
Other Front Range metro areas, including Denver and Longmont, have experienced little or no growth during recent years. Denver’s population may actually be on the decline. The World Population Review estimates that it has decreased by about one-fifth of one percent since 2020.
The population decline in Estes Park marks a notable shift from previous decades of steady growth. According to the 2020 U.S. Census, Colorado’s population grew by 14.8% from 2010 to 2020, making it one of the fastest-growing states in the nation. Much of this growth was fueled by domestic migration and high birth rates, particularly in metro areas like Denver and Colorado Springs.
Recent trends, however, show a shift from domestic migration to international immigration as the primary driver of Colorado’s population growth. In 2023, Colorado gained 11,931 individuals from international migration, nearly three times higher than in 2021.
The population demographics of Estes Park are shifting toward an older array of residents. Fewer families with children and fewer young people who expect to start a family are choosing to live in the town.
“We anticipate that statewide, the school-age population (those 5 to 17 years old) reached a near-term peak in 2020 at 947,912,” said Watkins. “Since then, Colorado has averaged an estimated 5,900 decline each year in the school-age population. Declines in this population are projected to continue through 2031.”
According to the State of Colorado’s annual student census, referred to as the October County, the Estes Park School system has 956 students this year, 60 fewer students this year than last year. The census numbers reflect a large 2024 graduating class and a small 2024-2025 kindergarten class.
For Estes Park and Larimer County, the overall population decline and the concomitant reduction in children pose challenges to local economies, community planning activities, and public education. Public schools receive per-pupil funding from the state, so lowered enrollment results in less revenue for school districts.
And a smaller population may also cause a reduction in the local tax base, affecting public services and infrastructure funding. Individuals and families pay local sales taxes when they make purchases and, where required by local law, pay property taxes, too.
The upside of a declining population may include lowered demand for housing, although that cannot be assumed given the relative paucity of buildable land in and near Estes Park.
The cost of construction, which now sits at $450-$850 per square foot, according to Windcliff Vacation Homes, as well as rising home insurance premiums and ongoing interest in the town as a destination for second or vacation residences also will have an impact on that demand. And the price of homes in the town – the median now exceeds $700,000, according to Redfin – is not likely to decline soon.
Even if housing demand declines, Estes Park may not be able to count on a pattern of fewer children or smaller school enrollments continuing. Watkins explained that, beginning in the 2030s, the situation could reverse.
“The Millennial generation is currently reaching the age of peak fertility rates and we expect births to rise as a result,” she said. “These births are expected to grow the school-age population beginning in 2032. The statewide school-age population is expected to ultimately exceed the 2020 peak beginning in the 2040s.”